Modelling an influenza pandemic: A guide for the perplexed.
نویسنده
چکیده
tially identified in Mexico, has now caused outbreaks of disease in at least 74 countries, with declaration of a global influenza pandemic by the World Health Organization on June 11, 2009. Optimizing public health responses to this new pathogen requires difficult decisions over short timelines. Complicating matters is the unpredictability of influenza pandemics: planners cannot base their decisions solely on pre-pandemic factors or on experience from earlier pandemics. We suggest that mathematical modelling can inform and optimize health policy decisions in this situation.
منابع مشابه
A Narrative Review of Influenza: A Seasonal and Pandemic Disease
Influenza is an acute respiratory disease caused by the influenza A or B virus. It often occurs in outbreaks and epidemics worldwide, mainly during the winter season. Significant numbers of influenza virus particles are present in the respiratory secretions of infected persons, so infection can be transmitted by sneezing and coughing via large particle droplets. The mean duration of influenza v...
متن کاملPandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country
OBJECTIVES The possible occurrence of a highly pathogenic influenza strain is of concern to health authorities worldwide. It is known that during past influenza pandemics developing countries have experienced considerably higher death rates compared with developed countries. Furthermore, many developing countries lack appropriate pandemic preparedness plans. Mathematical modelling studies to gu...
متن کاملPublic Health Policy and Experience of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Pune, India
Background Prior experience and the persisting threat of influenza pandemic indicate the need for global and local preparedness and public health response capacity. The pandemic of 2009 highlighted the importance of such planning and the value of prior efforts at all levels. Our review of the public health response to this pandemic in Pune, India, considers the challenges of integrating global ...
متن کاملDetection of Seasonal Influenza H1N1 and H3N2 Viruses using RT-PCR Assay during 2009 Flu Pandemic in Golestan Province
Abstract Background and Objective: The emergence of a novel H1N1influenza A virus of animal origin with transmissibility from human to human poses pandemic concern. Current subtypes of Seasonal influenza A viruses spread in human are influenza A H1N1 influenza A H3N2 and influenza type B viruses. The aim of this study was to determine current strains of the H3N2 and new H1N1 subtypes of influe...
متن کاملAmantadine-Resistant among Seasonal H1N1 and 2009 Pandemic Isolated of Influenza A Viruses in Iran
Background and Aims: Influenza A viruses are important pathogens for humans especially in pandemic episodes. Two adamantane derivates, amantadine and rimantadine, are used for prophylaxis and treatment of influenza A virus infections. However, single amino acid substitutions in the M2 transmembrane domain which lead to amantadine resistance of these viruses occur at residues 26, 27, 30, 31 or 3...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne
دوره 181 3-4 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2009